Last week while in a bomb shelter with a friend who leans in an opposite political direction, we began to discuss the unfolding events in Israel. After some deliberations and inquiring about each other's views on the matter, we came to the conclusion it is nearly impossible to analyze the Middle East right now. Not only did the horrific events of October 7th completely shatter the status-quo of the Middle East, but as updates from the war trickle in slowly, often with a fair share of misinformation, the regular civilian without any insider information is at an acute disadvantage in making sense of what is happening. Every hour seemingly new information is made public questioning current theses on security, diplomatic agreements, and the economic future of the region. For now, all analysis is merely prediction for the post-war days and the broader Middle East.
However, there are some surefire facts and developments that the war has brought to life. While news is as cheap as ever during the fog of war (especially when we can barely trust it), meaningful analysis coupled with educated review does have some value. I thought it would be helpful to compile a short reading list of sorts for those who do want to get a bigger picture of what is going on and the discussions at play.
For those of you who don’t know what happened on October 7th, Hamas initiated a monstrous terror attack on Israeli civilians during a holiday weekend, killing over 1400 and taking over 250 hostage. Hamas showed no regard for women, children, and the elderly, while evidence shows Hamas committed some of the most despicable actions known to man by raping women, beheading children, and burning babies. By now, many stories have surfaced of how the events proceeded on that awful day, with the excellent geovisualization tool for mapping the massacres showing precisely where each of the monstrosities were committed.
As any sovereign country rightfully should do, Israel forcefully responded. After a three week aerial bombing campaign, the IDF entered Gaza with the intended goal of completely wiping out Hamas. I am not ashamed to say I support Israel in their fight against terror. In Israel proper, there was unanimous support for the war's stated goal. I wrote last week about how the terrorist attacks saved Israel from the rough patch it was going through, and I hope the camaraderie the country has seen will remain. Since the war began, I have seen limited “I told you so’s” regarding the 2005 Gaza Disengagement coming from the Israeli right, while other than some pockets, the left has remained relatively quiet as well (other than their critiques of PM Netanyahu). This interview with the former chief of Israeli military intelligence Amos Yadlin shows a good nuanced perspective of the Israeli left. It may be premature, but this war will likely change the overall bloc-logic of the Knesset as well.
During the Israel-Gaza war in May 2021, an additional threat against Israel was flare-ups from Israel’s Arab population where there were many riots in places like Lod and Ramle. As a reminder, around 21% of Israel’s citizens are Israeli-Arabs who exercise the same rights as Jewish citizens. At the start of this war, it was a major concern for the Israeli security establishment whether the local Arab population was an additional threat as well. However, it appears this time it is not the case. Many members of the Israeli-Arab community were attacked in the massacre on October 7th, including a story surfacing of an Arab Muslim bus driver from East Jerusalem who was murdered at the Nova festival purely for living in the State of Israel. Israeli-Arabs are visibly upset from the terrorist attacks, often denouncing Hamas attacks and creating videos warning Hamas. On a personal anecdote, I have been staying in a predominantly Israeli-Arab area, and the streets have been eerily quiet. The Hamas atrocities have affected all Israeli citizens alike.
The major concern right now is greater escalation from our regional enemies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or other Iranian-backed terror entities like the Houthis in Yemen. This past Friday, Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, delivered a much-hyped-up speech to his followers. The discourse prior to the speech was whether he was going to escalate the war physically, but he elected to escalate in rhetorical terms only. The Houthis in Yemen, on the other hand, have declared war on Israel. The Shi’ite terrorist group in Yemen sent several long-range missiles over the Red Sea directed towards Israel, yet with the help of the United States and Saudi Arabia (!), Israel intercepted them. I would venture to argue that Yemen knows it won’t hurt Israel, and frankly they are not so scary with less than a thousand dollars GDP per capita.
Hear it from Al-Jazeera themselves who argue that the Houthis in reality are seeking to damage Saudi Arabia, in fear of future Israel-Saudi normalization. If the Houthis escalate the attacks, it would imply Saudi Arabia would be another front for Israel as well - theoretically putting the Saudis and Israel on the same team. While Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry has condemned Israel’s actions during the war, Prince Turki Al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia’s former intelligence chief, condemned Hamas as well for killing civilians.
While on the topic of the broader Middle East, it is becoming fact that Hamas and their funders in Tehran committed these massacres in fear of Saudi-Israel normalization talks advancing. Here’s Foreign Policy on the matter:
“Hamas, a charter member of Tehran’s so-called axis of resistance, just blew up the crown prince’s entire regional strategy with what many suspect was Iranian help. The success of Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030—the country’s self-described ambitious road map to “new growth and investment opportunities, greater global engagement, and enhanced quality of life for our citizens”—depends, in part, on the stability and greater integration of the major economies of the region, including Israel (though not Iran).”
Despite Hamas temporarily pausing this vision, I argue the Abraham Accords are alive and well. It is both in the UAE and Saudi Arabia's interest to continue the path towards peace in the region. The Bahraini minister of finance retained his stance for a secure, safe, region - with a notable quote saying “the future belongs with those who are looking forward and building – not those who seek destruction.” The UAE similarly condemned the barbaric attacks. The brilliant interview by Rasha Nabil for Al-Arabiya, a Saudi-owned media conglomerate, pressing Khaled Mashal how the West and the Arab world can support Hamas after the awful massacre they committed. Mashal seemed visibly annoyed. Perhaps Israel will need to pay a higher price for the Bibi/MBS handshake the world needs, but I remain confident it will happen soon.
On the other hand, a change of thesis I had on the region is on Israel’s northern perimeter: Turkey. It appeared throughout the last two years, and the last six months in particular, Turkey and Israel were warming relations. Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan and Bibi met at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this past September, while President Herzog visited Turkey in March 2022. Turkey is a popular destination for Israeli tourists, in addition to 3.6% of Israeli exports and 6.2% of imports are to and from Turkey, respectively. Yet, as soon as the war began, all signs of progress seemed to be lost. Ankara recalled their envoy to Israel, while Erdogan stated “Netanyahu is no longer someone we can talk to. We have written him off.” This goes without mentioning Turkey hosts several Hamas senior leaders within their borders. Israel themselves have stated that they plan on “reevaluating the diplomatic relationship as well.” Sadly, the new dawn in Israel-Turkish relations appears to be fading.
Questions over a post-war Gaza are also in the mix, as there are plenty of ideas floating around. I won’t speculate on any, but they seem to range from some combination of the UN, US, Israel, and another Arab entity in the strip. The answer to that question will likely be what influences the region the most in the coming years. I argue the answer is in Riyadh, Manama, and Abu Dhabi.
Perhaps the most horrific development since the massacre itself is the response on college campuses worldwide. Thousands of “student-activists” chant genocidal slogans calling for the destruction of the Jewish state across the college quads, while ripping down posters of the hostages in Gaza has become a form of “resistance”. Professors at leading universities around the United States openly praise the “achievements” of Hamas’ massacre, while signing completely morally bankrupt letters claiming both-sidesism. Clubs at universities, who pride themselves on their human rights and equality, published on their fliers “the holocaust wasn’t special” and "Zionists aren’t invited,” somehow connecting the Israeli government to Jews on campus who simply just want to go to movie night. These vicious acts, statements, and demonstrations must be condemned at all costs. Bill Ackman, the esteemed hedge fund manager, has taken an excellent stance on the matter: addressing the issue at its roots. Yair Lapid, Israel’s former PM, who isn’t necessarily a right-wing figure, also had an excellent point on the blatant antisemitism. Furthermore, I am glad to see notable left-wing commentators denounce this branch of their party as well. Moral clarity at a time like this is of the upmost importance.
Now, this antisemitism doesn’t surprise me if it's on the streets of Baghdad or in Russian airports, but in what is considered the epitome of higher education is a new low. Donors are pulling funding out of universities, and thousands of parents around the globe will now be questioning whether these high-regarded colleges are the right place to send their children. Both on the matter of physical safety and intellectual reasoning, universities and their students around the world have received failing grades.
President Biden has done an excellent job so far supporting Israel. The best speech of his entire presidency so far followed the October 7th events, and he has continued to keep his position strong in defense of Israel, despite it potentially costing him politically in the run up to 2024. The House, although dysfunctional in the first few weeks of the war, got their act together and are on a good path to supporting Israel in talks for an aid package for Israel. The US military, on the other hand, is throwing their weight in the region quite significantly. Just yesterday, US Central Command published an Ohio-class submarine arrived in the Middle East, a clear deterrent sign for any adversaries. Easily one of the strongest forces in the entire US military, the nuclear powered sub with 154 tomahawks on board will ensure any unwanted threats enter the picture.
In addition to the United States, other Western world leaders showed support and visited Israel over the past several weeks. Notable statements came from Czech Republic who has been a vocal advocate for Israel at the UN, and from Germany’s vice-chancellor Robert Habeck in an emotional video. Plenty of other international troops and forces are in the region as well. Bolivia, Columbia, and an assortment of other Latin American countries are against Israel in this one, joining Israel’s usual adversaries at the UN. If this is a trend, they will likely regret that. Israel continues to see strong support in India, the far east, and in Australia. Excellent personal experiences this past summer in Japan further emphasize the bond between the Japanese and Israeli populations.
So what's next? Well, the war will continue to drag on as the ground invasion builds up. Israel has made it clear the goal of the war is to completely eradicate Hamas. Israeli society is prepared for a long conflict, yet it's unclear how long the economy will hold up. I remain confident the Israeli tech powerhouse will return stronger than ever following the war - both in manpower and in foreign interest. I continue to monitor trends in diplomacy across the region and with Israel’s allies abroad. Now more than ever, being on the right side of history is vital. The leaders of the United States and Europe have understood Hamas and their backers' clear intentions: the West is next. I remain hopeful that as Israel prevails, so will its friends.
Excellent analysis and overview Benny!